> Skip to content
FEATURED:
  • The Evolution of Race in Admissions
Sign In
  • News
  • Advice
  • The Review
  • Data
  • Current Issue
  • Virtual Events
  • Store
    • Featured Products
    • Reports
    • Data
    • Collections
    • Back Issues
    • Featured Products
    • Reports
    • Data
    • Collections
    • Back Issues
  • Jobs
    • Find a Job
    • Post a Job
    • Career Resources
    • Find a Job
    • Post a Job
    • Career Resources
Sign In
  • News
  • Advice
  • The Review
  • Data
  • Current Issue
  • Virtual Events
  • Store
    • Featured Products
    • Reports
    • Data
    • Collections
    • Back Issues
    • Featured Products
    • Reports
    • Data
    • Collections
    • Back Issues
  • Jobs
    • Find a Job
    • Post a Job
    • Career Resources
    • Find a Job
    • Post a Job
    • Career Resources
  • News
  • Advice
  • The Review
  • Data
  • Current Issue
  • Virtual Events
  • Store
    • Featured Products
    • Reports
    • Data
    • Collections
    • Back Issues
    • Featured Products
    • Reports
    • Data
    • Collections
    • Back Issues
  • Jobs
    • Find a Job
    • Post a Job
    • Career Resources
    • Find a Job
    • Post a Job
    • Career Resources
Sign In
ADVERTISEMENT
Data
  • Twitter
  • LinkedIn
  • Show more sharing options
Share
  • Twitter
  • LinkedIn
  • Facebook
  • Email
  • Copy Link URLCopied!
  • Print

Big Drops in Enrollment Hit Colleges in the First Fall of the Pandemic. Who Was Able to Bounce Back?

By  Brian O’Leary and 
Audrey Williams June
February 14, 2023

After the pandemic began in early 2020, colleges grappled with a frightening prospect: What if first-time students skipped going to college in the fall?

Many colleges’ fears about attendance, of course, came true. And the drop in first-time students — whose numbers drive enrollment each year — proved to be especially steep at community colleges.

A big question loomed for the following fall: Would enrollment be able to bounce back?

A Chronicle analysis of federal data offers some insights about how the enrollment of first-time, degree-seeking students at more than 2,600 colleges in our sample fared the following year. Read on to see whose enrollments recovered, whose started clawing their way back, and whose kept falling.

We’re sorry. Something went wrong.

We are unable to fully display the content of this page.

The most likely cause of this is a content blocker on your computer or network. Please make sure your computer, VPN, or network allows javascript and allows content to be delivered from c950.chronicle.com and chronicle.blueconic.net.

Once javascript and access to those URLs are allowed, please refresh this page. You may then be asked to log in, create an account if you don't already have one, or subscribe.

If you continue to experience issues, contact us at 202-466-1032 or help@chronicle.com

After the pandemic began in early 2020, colleges grappled with a frightening prospect: What if first-time students skipped going to college in the fall?

Many colleges’ fears about attendance, of course, came true. And the drop in first-time students — whose numbers drive enrollment each year — proved to be especially steep at community colleges.

A big question loomed for the following fall: Would enrollment be able to bounce back?

A Chronicle analysis of federal data offers some insights about how the enrollment of first-time, degree-seeking students at more than 2,600 colleges in our sample fared the following year. Read on to see whose enrollments recovered, whose started clawing their way back, and whose kept falling.

But first, let’s look at how pervasive the declines were in the first fall following the pandemic’s start; enrollment in The Chronicle’s sample fell at about three in four institutions.

ADVERTISEMENT

We were particularly interested in what happened at the harder-hit colleges, where enrollment dropped by 10 percent or more. Despite high hopes that first-time student attendance would rebound in the fall of 2021, that outcome largely didn’t pan out, The Chronicle’s analysis shows. The inability to recoup enrollment losses was most evident at public colleges.

For some types of colleges, the road to recovery was more uphill than most. Of the 560 institutions classified as associate colleges and whose first-time student enrollment fell by at least 10 percent in 2020, only one in 20 recouped the students they lost the following year. On the other side of the spectrum, about 25 percent of doctoral institutions saw enrollment return to pre-pandemic levels.

Of the 1,257 colleges whose enrollment fell by at least 10 percent in the fall of 2020, 137 recovered the first-time students they lost by the fall of 2021. Another 540 didn’t fully recover but saw enrollment headed in the right direction. At another 573 institutions, however, enrollment continued to drop. And at seven institutions — three of them community colleges — first-time enrollment dropped in 2020 and stayed at the same level the following year.

Methodology

Data is from the Department of Education’s Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (Ipeds). Enrollment data is for all first-time degree-seeking students. Only degree-granting Title IV-eligible colleges in the U.S., including Washington, D.C., in 2021 are included. Colleges that did not have 2019 and 2020 data are excluded.

We welcome your thoughts and questions about this article. Please email the editors or submit a letter for publication.
DataAdmissions & Enrollment
Brian O’Leary
Brian O’Leary is an interactive news editor at The Chronicle, where he builds data visualizations and other interactive news products. Email him at brian.oleary@chronicle.com.
Audrey Williams June
Audrey Williams June is the news-data manager at The Chronicle. She explores and analyzes data sets, databases, and records to uncover higher-education trends, insights, and stories. Email her at audrey.june@chronicle.com, or follow her on Twitter @audreywjune.
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT
  • Explore
    • Get Newsletters
    • Letters
    • Free Reports and Guides
    • Blogs
    • Virtual Events
    • Chronicle Store
    • Find a Job
    Explore
    • Get Newsletters
    • Letters
    • Free Reports and Guides
    • Blogs
    • Virtual Events
    • Chronicle Store
    • Find a Job
  • The Chronicle
    • About Us
    • DEI Commitment Statement
    • Write for Us
    • Talk to Us
    • Work at The Chronicle
    • User Agreement
    • Privacy Policy
    • California Privacy Policy
    • Site Map
    • Accessibility Statement
    The Chronicle
    • About Us
    • DEI Commitment Statement
    • Write for Us
    • Talk to Us
    • Work at The Chronicle
    • User Agreement
    • Privacy Policy
    • California Privacy Policy
    • Site Map
    • Accessibility Statement
  • Customer Assistance
    • Contact Us
    • Advertise With Us
    • Post a Job
    • Advertising Terms and Conditions
    • Reprints & Permissions
    • Do Not Sell My Personal Information
    Customer Assistance
    • Contact Us
    • Advertise With Us
    • Post a Job
    • Advertising Terms and Conditions
    • Reprints & Permissions
    • Do Not Sell My Personal Information
  • Subscribe
    • Individual Subscriptions
    • Institutional Subscriptions
    • Subscription & Account FAQ
    • Manage Newsletters
    • Manage Your Account
    Subscribe
    • Individual Subscriptions
    • Institutional Subscriptions
    • Subscription & Account FAQ
    • Manage Newsletters
    • Manage Your Account
1255 23rd Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20037
© 2023 The Chronicle of Higher Education
  • twitter
  • instagram
  • youtube
  • facebook
  • linkedin